Recession is over, judging by new catalog

Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

MattPete said:
With incomes declining, I can't fathom why they are raising their prices.

Also, with the money supply being destroyed faster than the Fed can print, we're actually in a deflationary environment.

Philcguitars said:

rise in costs of materials...

The cost of wood is rising

I know that the price of wood, at least for constructing houses, has plummeted in the US. So many mills have closed that there is shortage of sawdust (used for making pencils). The price of lumber is over 50% off from the peak of the last few years. I don't know how that is related to specialty woods like swamp ash or mahogany, but Warmoth's price for body blanks seem like they've only gone up a little bit over the years.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/charts/LUW.GIF
(can not be externally linked -- paste url into your browser to view)


Metal costs overall have been rising consistantly over recent years.

Aluminum has plunged
Dynamic_fChart_cPrice.asp

...but iron has shot way up:
Dynamic_fChart_cPrice.asp


Considering the plummeting demand from car factories worldwide, I don't see those prices sticking.



Labour's never got cheaper, workers always want more [inflation]

In the State's, you're lucky to keep your job. Aint no raises on this side of the pond.


Transport Costs are up [see energy]

Oil is at the lowest it's been in 4 years (at least in dollars), and less than half of what it was last summer.

COM.GIF
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/charts/COM.GIF
(can not be externally linked -- paste url into your browser to view)


Energy costs are on the rise
etc etc.

Natural gas is down, too:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/charts/NGM.GIF
NGM.GIF
(can not be externally linked -- paste url into your browser to view)
NGM.GIF
Click to expand...


Those are some very interesting graphs!

I'm not seeing the cost of Ali, Steel, Brass etc falling for my engineering projects in the UK, not significantly at Supplier Level. Overall they are mre expensive NOW than in 2000. Maybe it is falling on the Markets, but this is NOT being past on to us. My engineering company I use is depleating there Metal store, and only buying in on a project to project basis!

My GAS & ELECTRIC Bills have consistently risen over the last 10 years!

Fuel - May have dipped a little in recent months, but there are plenty of OTHER Transport costs, particularly in the UK, that are making those running costs EXPENSIVE. The only significant drop I have had in my Bills is VAT [Value Added Tax] but as a business I could ALWAYS claim that back, so little change. Gas may be dropping in the Market, but there are many other factors from legislation to new tech investment costs, keeping end-supplier costs high, In the UK at least.

Labour is Already expensive. People are losing their Jobs on a WORLDWIDE basis!

Just because people are losing their jobs, and not getting raises NOW, doesn't mean that they haven't been getting raises in previous years, that are above natural inflation. Some Unions have even Striked to get these rises in recent years. Of course, I'm NOT saying this happens in EVERY industry.

Losing your job is a absolutely a TERRIBLE thing to happen, but is a reflection that the employer can no longer afford you, for whatever reason. I've seen downturns in my work levels, because I specialise in an area that is somewhat of a luxury in my industry.

I guess it may be down to a point of view of where in the World you live, or what industry you are in, and whether MARKET costs get passed on to the END user. There has been a LOT of criticism in the UK that the END USER is Not getting these reductions passed on at SIGNIFICANT levels.

Hope that this explains why I said what I did.

P.S. You don't build houses with the same quality of wood you build guitars with. Mahogany and other rare woods are now being protected.
 
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Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

The problem isn't the cost of labor. The problem is the difference in the cost of labor in the developed world vs the developing world in combination with laws that favour global corporate entities rather than domestic workers.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

theboatcandream said:
The problem isn't the cost of labor. The problem is the difference in the cost of labor in the developed world vs the developing world in combination with laws that favour global corporate entities rather than domestic workers.
Click to expand...

I agree with that statement. Of course the Economic theory long-term is that the Un-developed World will Develop and gain parity with us.

It doesn't help though, when you're trying to put bread on the table in the developed World, and your job just went to India.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

Mattpete, transport costs are not up, they are way down. Fuel costs are way down, surcharges have went away, the fright market is very weak. Carriers are moving stuff for CHEAP just to move stuff!
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

ES350 said:
Methinks it's time for some protectionism...way overdue.
Click to expand...

It has been time for that for years. Nothing is wrong with protectionism, I dont see the big deal.

Of course places like Mexico and Canada are going to have a fit but, WTF do they really expect? Of course they want to keep all the jobs. Nafta sure did not help the US out any. Helped everyone else though.
 
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Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

veryhungrycaterpilla said:
I'm not buying any gear. The jump in prices is way out of line with the economy.
Click to expand...

The price raises over the last number of years seemed crazy too but, it has worked. Musicians keep paying that dollar for it. I wont be.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

blueman335 said:
Let's hope your fortunes don't change. But there's millions that are strugging now.
Click to expand...

Millions may be but, if the other millions would stop freaking out on gloom and doom BS they see on TV, it would not be nearly as bad would it. They would probably still have a job. Like I said, I am not participating and making a knee jerk reaction they want me to make.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

theodie said:
It has been time for that for years. Nothing is wrong with protectionism, I dont see the big deal.

Of course places like Mexico and Canada are going to have a fit but, WTF do they really expect? Of course they want to keep all the jobs. Nafta sure did not help the US out any. Helped everyone else though.
Click to expand...

Mexico will have a fit, but Canada is a completely different economy. The USA is actually dependent on Canada for things like energy, uranium, timber, and real beer.

NAFTA helped the USA tremendously. Adding Mexico to NAFTA did not.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

theboatcandream said:
Mexico will have a fit, but Canada is a completely different economy. The USA is actually dependent on Canada for things like energy, uranium, timber, and real beer.

NAFTA helped the USA tremendously. Adding Mexico to NAFTA did not.
Click to expand...

Real beer, you had to go there. LOL

We make it, just not in mega huge batches. What are you talking about, Labatt Blue? LOL.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

They might have raised the price to give the retailers a better margin. That's the only thing that really makes sense to me. Someone wrote here that his store actually gets the Fenders for less and but with a higher price for the consumer... the retailers now can give bigger discounts, which will only mean that the price would be the same as before...

The power of the retailers has went up over the years (in many markets) and I won't be surprised if "Street Prices" are making it hard for most sellers out there...

The "lumber/labor prices went up" theory ignores the fact that other brands have avoided raising their prices, when common sense say that if such a thing happen it is what all guitar luthiers would do.



Also, I always thought that Gibson are marking the prices up to position themselves as the Rolex or Rolls Royce of the guitar world... a status symbol and all... they are doing A LOT of mistakes if that is what they are up to.
Mixing the Epiphone brand with the higher end Gibson models on their website is the last one so far. The quality issues in a $3000 guitar are proably the most discussed mistakes on the web...
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

theodie said:
Real beer, you had to go there. LOL

We make it, just not in mega huge batches. What are you talking about, Labatt Blue? LOL.
Click to expand...

I don't like Labatt or Molson to be honest (except for Rickard's Red and creemore which are both made by Molson). Sleeman is alright, especially Sleeman Honey Brown. Alexander Keith is a good one too. Wellington Imperial Stout is my favourite Canadian beer though, even though I only had it once and then wasn't able to find it again.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

Philcguitars said:
Those are some very interesting graphs!

I'm not seeing the cost of Ali, Steel, Brass etc falling for my engineering projects in the UK, not significantly at Supplier Level. ....
Click to expand...


It might be because those graphs are denominated in dollars (as are Gibson's supplies).
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

Look for wood prices at Stewmac, Ebay or wherever.

Even if they doubles, they wouldn't cause a $400 price hike on a Strat.
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

theboatcandream said:
I don't like Labatt or Molson to be honest (except for Rickard's Red and creemore which are both made by Molson). Sleeman is alright, especially Sleeman Honey Brown. Alexander Keith is a good one too. Wellington Imperial Stout is my favourite Canadian beer though, even though I only had it once and then wasn't able to find it again.
Click to expand...

Yeah right! You know you were thinking about Molson XXX!
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

You know you're on the SDUGF when a thread on gear pricing morphs into a beer discussion :cool2:
 
Re: Recession is over, judging by new catalog

heh heh , it's just whistling in the dark , wait and see , they will drop when they get HUNGRY ! !

Hurricane
 
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