valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

[Gr8Scott]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Are you talking about using amplifiers as recreation or under professional working conditions? I told the story in an earlier post of being forced into a situation of having to use a Line 6 Vetta whilst playing in the pit band for a nationally televised sports show here in Australia. The amps were in house for that particular TV station and they had restrictions on bringing in outside equipment. I play guitar for a living, and have done so exclusively for the past 26 years. Both myself and the other guitarist were in the same boat. We both agreed that after hours of tweaking in rehearsal and soundchecks and the down time in between that no matter what we tried, we could not coax anything resembling a beautiful tone from those amplifiers.

I am an experienced tweaker of all sorts of musical equipment, I have a strong idea of what I'm doing. At a professional level, those amps were atrocious. I know when I'm dealing with a piece of equipment that is incapable of achieving a certain standard, because I spent 3 years doing equipment reviews for a music magazine, and learnt that the more time you have to spend tweaking without a breakthrough, the less likely it is that the equipment is going to yield great results. Conversely, plugging into a good tube amp delivers instantly pleasing results. What is the point of having versatility when it means many, many examples of mediocrity? "But my modeling amp can produce 1,000 substandard tones!" Yeah, ok, enjoy.



Where can I hear this "great tone" from SS or modeling amplifiers? Line 6? Fender? Marshall? Roland JC 120? Absolutely not, at all. Perhaps it is the case that we have different ideas on what "great tone" is. "Does that make it any less great?" Yes, it does. "So who cares?" Well, I do for starters, it's my livelihood. The fact that you don't care may work for you, because it may not affect your income. That's a hump that I have no need to get over, because the answer, for me, lies in not using SS or digital modeling amps. For $100, I can buy enough RCA blackplate 12AX7's and 6V6's to retube one of my amps twice. The 6v6's will last about 3 years, and the 12AX7's will last about 6-8, under constant use. I write that off as a tax deduction.

Obviously, we are all in different situations and with different perspectives about equipment. For some, the degrees of quality are virtually irrelevant except from a point of personal satisfaction, for others they are the tools of trade and are absolutely vital. No-one can speak for all of us in saying that SS or digital modeling amps are good enough. From my perspective, they don't even come close.


Cheers....................wahwah

Admittedly, I've never tried the Line 6 Vetta series amps, so I can't be a fair judge on that part. I will say that a few examples of amps of this type are found lacking in good tone at gigging volumes, but they do sound great at lower volumes. This makes them quite good for recording and practice. In lower volume settings, it would make them a good gigging amp also. When you have to crank it, well made tube amps do seem to sound a tad better. This being said, I invite anyone to stack my Vox Valvetronix head and cab cranked right next to any tube amp they have and tell me that it sounds bad. I'll laugh my head off at that. It sounds great at gigging volumes because that's what it was designed for. Maybe the Vettas and the rest of the line 6 crowd weren't built to sound good at gigging volumes, but my Valvetronix certainly sounds it's best when it's loud and I honestly can't tell the difference between it and a real tube amp at that point. It plays, sounds and feels just like the real deal. Maybe even better. I had it running in a room filled to the brim with some of the best tube amps money can buy just this weekend and it kept up just fine and sounded great to my ears. It had power and sweet complexity. It was certainly putting a smile on my face. Of course, it's a hybrid because of the 12AX7 tubes it has.

 

[aleclee]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

So, in 35 years, why has no SS amp ever sounded as good as the great tube amps, which, by all accounts from electronics savvy guys are under-engineered?
:feedback:

Part of it's because guitarists have come to expect amps to have that tube sound so any significant difference is considered "worse".

See my post a few pages back about supply/demand for higher-end SS amps.

 

[MesaDCLP]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

I voted modern tube, even though my favorite amp is 17 years in the making. I play metal, rock, blues, anything clean, and every tone between, and tubes affect more than the tone.

The fact that manufacturers are trying to replicate tube tone with their solid state technologies should be a hint to the researching consumer. Tubes add one thing that I have not found in SS equipment ... Feel. Tubes compress before they overdrive, and this may be cloned one day. SS tech is good for clean and distortion, but tubes offer all of this within the dynamics of playing without switching channels.

Tube amps are as reliable as solidstate, possibly more. They are easy to maintain, because most issues will be with a faulty tube...just change them. Tube watts are not SS watts...tube amps are much louder.

My favorite amp as of now is a Mesa Mark IV.

 

[tonedeaf1]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Admittedly, I've never tried the Line 6 Vetta series amps, so I can't be a fair judge on that part. I will say that a few examples of amps of this type are found lacking in good tone at gigging volumes, but they do sound great at lower volumes. This makes them quite good for recording and practice. In lower volume settings, it would make them a good gigging amp also. When you have to crank it, well made tube amps do seem to sound a tad better. This being said, I invite anyone to stack my Vox Valvetronix head and cab cranked right next to any tube amp they have and tell me that it sounds bad. I'll laugh my head off at that. It sounds great at gigging volumes because that's what it was designed for. Maybe the Vettas and the rest of the line 6 crowd weren't built to sound good at gigging volumes, but my Valvetronix certainly sounds it's best when it's loud and I honestly can't tell the difference between it and a real tube amp at that point. It plays, sounds and feels just like the real deal. Maybe even better. I had it running in a room filled to the brim with some of the best tube amps money can buy just this weekend and it kept up just fine and sounded great to my ears. It had power and sweet complexity. It was certainly putting a smile on my face. Of course, it's a hybrid because of the 12AX7 tubes it has.

Hey Gr8Scott, do you have the blue grill valvetronix or the metal grill?

 

[wahwah]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Admittedly, I've never tried the Line 6 Vetta series amps, so I can't be a fair judge on that part. I will say that a few examples of amps of this type are found lacking in good tone at gigging volumes, but they do sound great at lower volumes. This makes them quite good for recording and practice. In lower volume settings, it would make them a good gigging amp also.

We will have to agree to disagree on this. I used the Vetta both in a TV studio where high volumes are frowned upon, and in Rod Laver Arena, a 15,000 seater here in Melbourne. It was crap under both sets of conditions. Again, "great" is not a word I would use for those amps. I certainly wouldn't want to record those tones. I have a feeling that they are designed for those who are not familiar with the actual tones they are attempting to emulate. Those who would see "Blackface Fender" on an LCD screen and think "cool, that's what a BF Fender sounds like!" When in fact, it's not even in the same Universe. Kinda like all of those young keyboard players who see a "B3 Hammond" setting on their plastic keyboard and think they therefore know what a real B3 sounds like.

When you have to crank it, well made tube amps do seem to sound a tad better. This being said, I invite anyone to stack my Vox Valvetronix head and cab cranked right next to any tube amp they have and tell me that it sounds bad. I'll laugh my head off at that. It sounds great at gigging volumes because that's what it was designed for. Maybe the Vettas and the rest of the line 6 crowd weren't built to sound good at gigging volumes, but my Valvetronix certainly sounds it's best when it's loud and I honestly can't tell the difference between it and a real tube amp at that point. It plays, sounds and feels just like the real deal. Maybe even better. I had it running in a room filled to the brim with some of the best tube amps money can buy just this weekend and it kept up just fine and sounded great to my ears. It had power and sweet complexity. It was certainly putting a smile on my face. Of course, it's a hybrid because of the 12AX7 tubes it has.

I'm going to take your recommendation on this and check out the Valvetronix at my first opportunity. If anyone was going to get it right, or at least get closer, it would probably be the combination of Korg and Vox.


Cheers.....................wahwah

 

[MikeS]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

No-one can speak for all of us in saying that SS or digital modeling amps are good enough. From my perspective, they don't even come close.

Then why are some attempting to speak for the rest of us when saying that great tone can't be had from solid state technology? That's what disgusts me about this thread. I understand we're all gear snobs, but we do not need to preach on as though our opinions are gospel. It's fine if the technology doesn't work for you, but please, do not assume that it also doesn't work for everyone else. Also do not assume that because some of us have embraced the technology that we are any less tone savvy. Such a suggestion is a slap in the face. I can appreciate your experience and you opinion, mate, but it's not gospel.

That's all I was getting at in my post. I love a great tube amp as much as the next guy, but I also understand that good tone can be had in solid state amplifiers. In regards to the high modeling amplifiers, if you cannot find a good tone within their capabilities then IMO you aren't trying hard enough. Throw all your tweaking knowledge out the window, because the knobs on a modeling amplifier react in a completely different way than those on a tube amp. I'm not saying you'll find "the" tone for you, but I am saying that not all the tones (at least in my opinion) are dismissable.

 

[MikeS]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

I don’t mean to sound like I’m sounding off at you wahwah. I do respect your experience and the opinion that you hold as a result of that. I understand we may not share all the same opinions, and that’s ok, as tone is purely a subjective thing. I suppose I got a little carried away because I simply get tired of reading the same things over and over again regarding modeling technology. It only takes one shared experience like yours to inspire many dissenting voices; voices that very rarely have a shred of a clue what they are talking about when it comes to dialing in a modeling amplifier and finding a tone that suits them.

:beerchug: Again, didn’t mean to appear as though I was focusing in on you alone.

 

[guitfiddle]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

It just seems like if every single amplifier maker has some version or the other for simulating "real tube tone and feel", why not go a little longer in the saving $ department, and just get the real thing? I could fool most people with a good modeler, cause they come close enough for that, but I'll NEVER be able to fool myself, and in MY quest for tone, I'm the only judge. What works, and works well for someone else might not for me, cause even if I'm the only person in the room who can tell, that's too many.
Admittedly, the Vox serise gets closer than Line 6 and the others...but it's due to the fact that they use a 12ax7 tube in a power amp configuration, so even it's above and beyond most other modelers and way above the all SS, IMHO. They feel better than a pure SS to me, but still lack the finger buzz I get from a great simple tube circuit.

 

[wahwah]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Then why are some attempting to speak for the rest of us when saying that great tone can't be had from solid state technology? That's what disgusts me about this thread. I understand we're all gear snobs, but we do not need to preach on as though our opinions are gospel.

I'm not sure who you are referring to, but I've been very careful to repeat that these are only my personal responses to the question. If somebody loves the tone they are getting from SS/modeling amps then all power to them, but when you said "My final word on modeling technology, and IMO, all that really matters: Is great tone possible from solid state modeling amplifiers? Absolutely," I couldn't see that as anything other than a statement of an absolute, which ironically seemed to me like you were preaching that point as if it were gospel. I for one, and again I only speak for myself, have never heard what I would call "great tone" from these sorts of amps, either playing through them myself nor from anyone else, so to me, that "absolute" statement is only hearsay or someone else's opinion, and no, certainly not gospel.

It's fine if the technology doesn't work for you, but please, do not assume that it also doesn't work for everyone else. Also do not assume that because some of us have embraced the technology that we are any less tone savvy. Such a suggestion is a slap in the face. I can appreciate your experience and you opinion, mate, but it's not gospel.

You would have to point out to me where I have suggested that the technology doesn't work for anyone else, and where I have assumed that those who embrace it are less tone savvy. I have said that for those who are just playing for pleasure that the standards may be less critical than they are for those who play professionally, and I still believe that to be a distinct possibility. Again, my opinion is in regard to my own experience, not anyone else's. I certainly have no desire to slap anyone in the face, and if I have I will apologise for that right now.

That's all I was getting at in my post. I love a great tube amp as much as the next guy, but I also understand that good tone can be had in solid state amplifiers. In regards to the high modeling amplifiers, if you cannot find a good tone within their capabilities then IMO you aren't trying hard enough. Throw all your tweaking knowledge out the window, because the knobs on a modeling amplifier react in a completely different way than those on a tube amp. I'm not saying you'll find "the" tone for you, but I am saying that not all the tones (at least in my opinion) are dismissable.

There was nothing about the user interface of the Vetta that was in any way new to me. Banks, presets, parameters with familiar functions and ranges, interactive DSP components, multi-functional knobs and switches...all stuff that I've been tweaking since the dawn of digital technologies in the 80's. I'm not sure how you formulated the opinion that 20 odd years of digital tweakage suddenly becomes irrelevant when dealing with a Vetta, but I'd be interested to hear your justification of that sweeping statement. I didn't approach the Vetta thinking, "Oh, this is just like a tube amp." I approached it in a similar fashion as I did my first SPX-90 or REV-7 20 years ago, as a piece of digital equipment intended to model an analog device.

As for not trying hard enough, let me say this. If you have to try any harder than I tried, then this is not a user friendly technology. To start with a factory setting called something like "BF Fender" which would be more aptly named "BS Fender," and then work that preset to try to make it conform to the actuality of the BF Fender I have in my head, ears and hands to no avail, is what leads me to my opinion. It is no different to the analogy I made in a previous post between the setting on a Korg M1 that says "Hammond B3" and the experience of having your hair blown back by the Leslie of a real B3. How long do you think you could tweak that M1 without it ever sounding like a real Hammond? The easy answer is, forever. That's how I felt about the Vetta. But I am still very interested to hear the Valvetronix, because from what has been said here by Gr8Scott and others, it may be much closer to the mark.



Cheers...................wahwah

 

[wahwah]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

I don’t mean to sound like I’m sounding off at you wahwah. I do respect your experience and the opinion that you hold as a result of that. I understand we may not share all the same opinions, and that’s ok, as tone is purely a subjective thing. I suppose I got a little carried away because I simply get tired of reading the same things over and over again regarding modeling technology. It only takes one shared experience like yours to inspire many dissenting voices; voices that very rarely have a shred of a clue what they are talking about when it comes to dialing in a modeling amplifier and finding a tone that suits them.

:beerchug: Again, didn’t mean to appear as though I was focusing in on you alone.

Hey MikeS, it's all totally cool. I like the fact that we can argue the points, throw our opinions around and still agree to disagree without lowering our personal standards! I really respect this forum and its members for that very reason. We get passionate about our equipment and choices, and I think that's a good thing. There are people here from all walks and with a broad variety of experience, but in the end we still only have one opinion each. That does it, I'm gonna go get me one of them digitally solid modeling state ampilyflyer things tomorrow.....


Cheers......................Geoff.

 

[ginormous]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

No offense bro but you're starting to sound self-righteous about electronics and an unpredictable future. o

Essentially yes, if you define "self-righteous" as being "right about myself and my own situation", and understanding from my own experience that the future has a level of uncertainty. Nothing lasts forever, and IMHO working from that paradigm -- keeping yourself on your toes, and making sure you have backups -- will cover your six. If you're a tube amp player, keep spares of everything: preamp, power amp, rectifier etc.

I played from a tube amp, and it died with fresh tubes in it. Did it change my mind about tube amps? It was a factor in that decision, yes. Do I hate those who think tubes are da bomb? No.

I don't hate. Life's too short, and I'm too tall.

Matthews brought tubes back from the dead in the 80s. He was a guitarist...

Props to Aspen Pittman also, who founded Groove Tubes.

 

[Luke Duke]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Essentially yes, if you define "self-righteous" as being "right about myself and my own situation", and understanding from my own experience that the future has a level of uncertainty. Nothing lasts forever, and IMHO working from that paradigm -- keeping yourself on your toes, and making sure you have backups -- will cover your six. If you're a tube amp player, keep spares of everything: preamp, power amp, rectifier etc.

All I meant was saying everything with such unwavering certainty. Notice I never said there WOULDN'T be that day....I just don't think it will be for a long time.

I'll even be the first to admit that I've heard some high gain recordings done with PODs that I thought were great and had mistaken them for tube amps.

IMO SS/digital falls flat on the warm clean-medium gain sounds.

I played from a tube amp, and it died with fresh tubes in it. Did it change my mind about tube amps? It was a factor in that decision, yes. Do I hate those who think tubes are da bomb? No.

I don't hate. Life's too short, and I'm too tall.



Props to Aspen Pittman also, who founded Groove Tubes.

The Ampeg? Had it had a cap job? Depending on use high current power supplies need their filter caps changed every 10-20 years. My guess would be that if it wasn't power tubes it was filter caps.

Luke

 

[Zhangliqun]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

There was nothing about the user interface of the Vetta that was in any way new to me. Banks, presets, parameters with familiar functions and ranges, interactive DSP components, multi-functional knobs and switches...

...As for not trying hard enough, let me say this. If you have to try any harder than I tried, then this is not a user friendly technology.

Reminds me of something somebody said to me years ago at another forum when I was asking about Johnson amps after I tried out one of their modelers:

"More knobs = less tone".

He was right, and this baby was probably less user-friendly than your Vetta. That said, as modeling amps go, it didn't sound too bad. Better than any Line 6 or Pod I ever plugged into anyway, though a lot more complicated.

But it tended to be kind of dull no matter what amp you were modeling and no matter how you tweaked the tone, like everything above 3kHz was rolled off hard. If not for this lack of sparkle/sizzle and the user-unfriendliness of it, it might have been a decent amp. Of course I didn't get to crank it and check for that digital clip which is definitely a nightmare.

 

[ginormous]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Guitarists and audiophiles apparently ARE enough motivation for the tube/tube amp industry because no-one but those two groups has had any use for tubes for the last 30 years -- and said industry is showing no signs of slowing down.

This is where I show my age... you said "last 30 years." There was a time when tubes were the electronics industry. The last technology where tubes had a foothold, TV displays (CRT), was caved in by flat-screen.

If anything, it's picking up and it will really ramp up when the NOS supply dwindles and more new tubes have to be made to keep up with demand from tube amp mfrs.

Also revealing my age: How many out there remember SS rectifiers that plugged into tube sockets? It's happened before... when it becomes less economical/profitable to make tubes, even for the customers who swear by them, tubes will become a boutique industry for a boutique market. The ones who need them will pay with body parts.

UNLESS/UNTIL...that vaunted Uber-SS amp finally appears...

Just keep an eye open, and don't be surprised when it happens.

 

[Zhangliqun]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

This is where I show my age... you said "last 30 years." There was a time when tubes were the electronics industry. The last technology where tubes had a foothold, TV displays (CRT), was caved in by flat-screen.

That's my point. They're still in business after all those losses, and will continue to be in business until they make an SS amp that sounds as good or better. There are not as many factories making tubes but there are probably more tube amps being made each year right now than ever before.

Also revealing my age: How many out there remember SS rectifiers that plugged into tube sockets? It's happened before... when it becomes less economical/profitable to make tubes, even for the customers who swear by them, tubes will become a boutique industry for a boutique market.

Again my point -- the only thing that will make it become less profitable to make tubes is the appearance of that vastly improved SS amp. You keep implying that it will somehow spontaneously come to pass that tubes will suddenly and mysteriously disappear from the marketplace, and that THEN the SS people would be forced to make a better amp.

But again I say you have it backwards. Even if tubes suddenly disappeared into thin air for no apparent reason, violating all laws of economics, the SS makers would have even LESS incentive to make a better sounding amp because SS would then be the only game in town. It is the continuing production of tube amps caused by a demand for them by the market -- because they sound better or are at least perceived by said market to sound better, enough of a perception of difference that the market is willing to pay a lot more for them up front and more money later to keep re-tubing them -- that gives SS makers incentive to come up with a better amp.

You keep saying "when it becomes less profitable to make tubes" as if it's some sort of fait accompli that requires no cause beyond someone at SDUG just pronouncing that "that time is coming". But it doesn't work that way. Tube makers aren't going to just mysteriously walk away from a profitable business unless they are forced to -- and the only thing short of some world-wide government ban on tubes or a raw material shortage that will force them out is the debut of an SS amp that the market believes sounds as good or better than tube.

Just keep an eye open, and don't be surprised when it happens.

I won't be surprised because I'm not saying it can't be done. I figure sooner or later they'll come up with something. BUT UNTIL THEY DO, tube amps are here to stay, because supply and demand doesn't care about calendars or hoary vague attempts at prophecy, it cares only about the facts on the ground. If somebody finally unveils that killer SS amp tomorrow, tubes are toast. But if 600,000 years go by and such an amp still hasn't appeared, they will still be making tube amps, no matter how many times somebody ominously intones "that time is coming".

 

[Red_Label]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

All I know is that when I go play for 900 people this Friday night, I'll be taking two tube amps (one spare) and 2 4X12's. My SS/modeling amps will be staying at home where they belong...

 

[Markk]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Tube Amp Modern. Vintage. Solid state. In that order. But the tube amps really do compete with each other. Sometimes I'm in the mood for one and sometimes for the other.

 

[Gr8Scott]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

Hey Gr8Scott, do you have the blue grill valvetronix or the metal grill?

Blue grill AD120VTH with a cab loaded with vintage 30's.

 

[ginormous]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

...the only thing that will make it become less profitable to make tubes is the appearance of that vastly improved SS amp.

(emphasis added)

As I've acknowledged before, I can see your points re: tube amps, how so many prefer the sound, etc., but it seems that many think consumer demand for the unique sound of the amps is the only thing worth considering. (WARNING: Econ 101 A-student content to follow. Not political, but may cause boredom to uninterested parties.)

The cost of manufacturing tubes is most certainly a factor. Some of the better brands/models have rare-earth materials (gold-plated pins, inert gas displacement etc.), R&D, and design that make them superior choices, and drive up their retail cost accordingly. The cheese-&-cracker models may have more of the market, but there's no market growth, which is something every business wants: more market means greater potential for increased market share. The loss of profit margin must be considered.

The tube socket plug-in SS rectifier is an example of someone attempting to do what market forces impose on a tectonic (google it) scale: lowest manufacturing cost, greatest appeal to broadest market, for greatest profit & highest return on investment.

Also, tube manufacturing is considered by many as (here come the flames:nervous obsolete. No electronic design engineer currently uses tubes in a circuit, unless for a specific purpose like guitar amps or esoteric high-end audio equipment. Unless you have the means to afford spare tubes, back-up amps, etc., you're going to have a hard time justifying the expense, unless you're a pro who can declare these things as business costs.

So, since these are all factors, I'm maintaining that the killer-sound SS amp is coming sooner than many think, if for no other reasons than these: (a) on a manufacturing scale, semiconductors are less expensive than tubes, (b) boutique companies are focused on making good-sounding, high-quality amps rather than strictly profit, and the mass-market guys are always looking for the next big thing; and (c) guitarists who know what they like won't settle for anything but tube tone.

"But why buy anything but tubes, if tubes give you the sound you're looking for?"

If it's going to have any impact at all, that killer-sound SS amp will have to be priced to sell. I refer to the Ford Model T as an example: before that, cars were made by hand, hammered and shaped by craftsmen, woodwork, paint and all. Ford used stamping machines and assembly lines to make the cars cheaper, and he scalded the market with low prices. The company that makes that amp is gonna spit them out like watermelon seeds at a picnic. The combination of the two, low cost and good sound, is why people will buy it.

That amp will also need adaptive, updatable software to make it flexible enough for individual needs. Again, so many people customized the Model T for so many uses, that it was the car of choice for years on end, even before it was turned into a hot-rod in the 40's & 50's, even after the Model A (and so many other brands) came along.

 

[Zhangliqun]

Re: valve/tube vs. solid state -- the battle continues

As I've acknowledged before, I can see your points re: tube amps, how so many prefer the sound, etc., but it seems that many think consumer demand for the unique sound of the amps is the only thing worth considering. The cost of manufacturing tubes is most certainly a factor.

That's true of any product. So what? If consumer demand is strong enough, the market will pay enough for the maker to make and sell at a profit. Which is exactly the case now.

Some of the better brands/models have rare-earth materials (gold-plated pins, inert gas displacement etc.), R&D, and design that make them superior choices, and drive up their retail cost accordingly.

Custom shop guitars going up in price doesn't drive up the price of lower end models. I fail to see your point.

Also, if you're going to make the case that rare earth materials and inert gas shortages are going to put the tube amp industry out of business, then you have to say the same for the jewelry industry, many kinds of special medical and lab equipment, and even balloons and God knows what else. A spike in gold that big would be the result of a major economic shock that would take out or damage all kinds of industries not even directly related to gold or inert gases, including SS amps. It wouldn't be a rifle shot aimed at tubes, it would be a bomb dropped on the whole economy.

But do you have any evidence that such a massive price spike and/or shortage of these materials is on the horizon? Otherwise it's pure speculation. Besides, we already have (and have always had) a shortage of such materials -- that's why they're called rare-earth.

The cheese-&-cracker models may have more of the market, but there's no market growth, which is something every business wants: more market means greater potential for increased market share.

You seem to be saying that everyone who makes tubes is on the verge of walking away at any moment because they don't see market growth. What do you base this on? Is it really true that there is no market growth? Tube amps are more popular than ever. And if lack of market growth was going to kill tube amps, it would have happened in the 80's when market conditions for tube amps were far worse. The fact is you can still make a decent profit making and selling tubes and tube amps and as long as that is the case, somebody will be doing it.

The loss of profit margin must be considered.

Do you have any evidence that the profit margin of tube makers is shrinking? You seem to be presenting assumptions as facts. Even if it's true, it could be due to increased competition.

Also, tube manufacturing is considered by many as (here come the flames:nervous obsolete. No electronic design engineer currently uses tubes in a circuit, unless for a specific purpose like guitar amps or esoteric high-end audio equipment.

If you're going to get flamed over this it would be for thinking that's news. Yes, tubes are obsolete to everybody but guitar amp and audiophile equipment makers, and that has been the case for at least 30 years as I said before. SS took over everything but these two markets long, long, long ago, because they outperform tubes in every application...EXCEPT guitar amps and audiophile gear. If tube amps were going to be taken out by the undertow of the rest of the electronics world switching to SS, it would have happened decades ago. But they're still here.

Unless you have the means to afford spare tubes, back-up amps, etc., you're going to have a hard time justifying the expense, unless you're a pro who can declare these things as business costs.

What are you talking about? All tube amp owners can currently afford spare tubes. You spend maybe $100-200 a year on them. Most already have back-up amps.

So, since these are all factors, I'm maintaining that the killer-sound SS amp is coming sooner than many think, if for no other reasons than these: (a) on a manufacturing scale, semiconductors are less expensive than tubes,

30+ years of tube amps and still going strong in the SS age says you're wrong. I repeat, the market likes tubes so much that it's willing to pay more for tube amps up front and in maintenance costs down the road.

(b) boutique companies are focused on making good-sounding, high-quality amps rather than strictly profit,

The boutique companies are about 99% tube.

Anyway, still no solid evidence that tubes are going away before the actual appearance of a truly great SS amp, just vague assumptions presented as facts. So I maintain that you have the economic formula completely backwards, e.g., that tube amps will spontaneously disappear from a thriving market for them and that will force mfrs to make the great SS amp. No, it will take the appearance of such an amp FIRST to kill tube amps.