50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

[JohnnyGuitar]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

I wonder if there'll even be pop music as we know it 50 years from now.

You know back in the 1910 -1920 period, just thirty or forty years before rock 'n roll music was invented, people played in mandolin orchestras and the banjo was more popular than the guitar.

Fifty years from now what we like today may be completely replaced by something that hasn't even been created yet.

It might not be mainstream but pop music will still be there. People still listen to classical music and to jazz - and classical and jazz players still pay a lot for vintage instruments. Modelling or composite material violins still didn't take the place of a good old fashioned violin.

If playing rock would turn into a niche it would probably get more respect than what it gets today...

I'd love to be able to plug my guitar into a modeling amp that would make my guitar sound like a Stradivarius violin...or Miles Davis' trumpet...or John Coltrane's saxophone...or ???

See... those old, out of fashion tones are still in demand. :14:

 

[Koreth]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Just wanted to point out a few things. Moore's law doesn't predict that computers will get more powerful or faster or anything else. It is simply an observation that the number of transistors that can be placed cheaply onto an integrated circuit doubles roughly every 2 years. 2x transistor count != 2x processing power. Furthermore, the current methods of producing semiconductor integrated circuits (those nifty things digital computers are made from) will eventually hit a wall where the transistors can't be made any smaller because you're starting to get down to the atomic scale, and all manner of fun little quantum effects come into play. A different approach will have to taken.

I'm not saying technology will cease to advance at one point. AFAIK, tube technology was close to reaching it's limitations, and along came transistors to solve the problems caused by the shortcomings of vacuum tubes. The same thing is going to eventually happen with semiconductor based digital computers. In 50 years digital computers and consequently amp modeling technology as we know it today may very well not even exist anymore. But just as it was discovered that there was something pleasing caused by the shortcomings and imperfections of vacuum tube technology, perhaps in 50 years, the musicians of the future will be striving to re-capture the wonderful, beautiful, soulful, organic vintage sounds of early 201x-era amplifier modeling.

Ultimately, tube amps, solid state amps, and even digital computers will become the domain of museums and collectors -- obsolete relics of a bygone era. I'm hopeful however, that music itself never will.

 

[aleclee]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Ten years ago, I was a happy modeling guy with a L6 AxSys 212 (or whatever TF it was called).

I came to the conclusion that it didn't really sound that great and sold it for a Koch Multitone. In the intervening years, I've owned tube amps by Fender, Soldano, Peters, Rivera, Fuchs, and Two Rock. I've owned a few modeling products (POD XTL, GuitarPort) too but they were never my primary tone platform. Life was good.

A few months ago I traded my Two Rock for an AxeFx and haven't turned on any of my tube amps since. My current circumstances aren't conducive to disappearing into the basement nor do they allow me to crank up an amp to the point where things get really tubey. While I wasn't happy to let the Two Rock go (I didn't have the cash to buy the AxeFx), the AxeFx gets somewhere between 95 and 105% of the Two Rock's tone. It does the same for the Soldano I used to own...and the Fender...and--well, you get the idea.

Given my experience, assuming that the electric guitar is an actively practiced instrument 50 yrs from now (more about that later), I have to believe that modeling is the future. Given the state of manufacturing, it really has to be.

First, there's the obvious: Forget about Moore's law, tubes aren't going to be made forever simply because it's not economically viable. As a component with a finite life (modern tubes much more so than NOS), the good stuff will get used up a number of years after production ceases...assuming you don't believe the good tubes are mostly gone already. That means that either our amps will go silent wanting for glowing bottles or some enterprising soul will develop a plug-in replacement. Do we really believe that such a replacement will sound just like real tubes? If it does, what are the chances that it does so using digital modeling?

Nearly as obvious is that modeling will continue to improve. Over the past several years, the AxeFx's modeling has gotten much better...without any changes to its hardware. With one or two major firmware revisions a year, Fractal manages to keep improving its product without adding a single transistor to its chips. Continue that sort of improvement for fifty years and you have something that will likely exceed our current ideas of what modeling can accomplish.

Even so, to me the real question isn't whether tube amps will still be popular in half a century but whether they should be. Are we so vain as to believe that the rock music of our youth will be considered hip for decades to come? What does that say about the creativity of contemporary musicians if it is? If another fifty years goes by without the next Hendrix or Van Halen shaking things up, electric guitar is liable to go the way of the banjo.

Besides, if the current trends in detuning continue, vintage guitar rigs won't be able to handle the subsonic content.

 

[That90'sGuy]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Given just how far technology has come while we've been alive, I have no doubts that good solid state technology will be in the future. Tubes are going to disappear. I agree with the poster that mentioned it would be "collectors" status, but I see that as sadly being the extent of tubes in music gear in the future.

Things aren't wild like they used to be. In the 60s and 70s, bands used loud amplifiers to project in large venues. Now, more powerful and advanced PA systems are around and sound guys are looking to turn down musician's amplifiers instead of turning them up. With the influence of things like Guitar Hero, the concept of playing through something like a 100w tube amplifier just isn't there. It's no surprise that low wattage amps are becoming more and more popular. Solid state amps sound better at low volumes. I can see setups that will be infinitely more customizable than previous generations ever had (the Axe FX is already proof of that). I see more manufacturers evolving off of the Vetta and the Axe FX. I think algorithms to clone tube amplifiers will be figured out, it's just a matter of time. I, for one, won't resist it. When Bogner releases some kind of crazy solid state product that can emulate all of their best amplifiers, I won't be crying about it.

 

[James Rock]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Likewise I think players will wise up to the ear damage we're all doing to ourselves and I think players will be able to create the huge sounds of the stadium amps of today with very small amps at a lower onstage volume.

I think there will probably be wireless systems with earphones live so that people can adjust volume themselves to taste eliminating monitors and FOH (heck its already happening on stage)..... I think in 5 years digital emulations could be pontentially perfect its just the cost. The reason line 6, VOX etc don't sound like a 3000 dollar amp is because they don't have the most up to date and expensive technologies. I'm sure with 32 bit audio and 192kHz and a ton of proccessing power concentrated on just modelling it can easily be down. Just look how much cheaper CPU and Hard Drives have got lately.

 

[Warheart]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Interesting thread....
I think tube amplifiers will still be around, but the tubes themselves may not. I think it can be taken as a given that at some point in time there will be little electronic doohickeys that you plug into a tube socket and get the tone without the tube.
QUOTE]

www.wattgrinder.com

They're already doing that?

Why is everyone saying that interest in the guitar is waning?

 

[Iron Horse]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

The guitars will have wireless connection straight into our heads or PA. The guitars will naturally have built-in preamps and effects in a computer.

 

[JOLLY]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Who cares? I'll be too busy hollering at kids to get the hell off my lawn.

 

[Lewguitar]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Who cares? I'll be too busy hollering at kids to get the hell off my lawn.

Now that they're getting up there in age, that's what the Rolling Stones are singing:

"Hey, you - get off of my lawn...Hey, you - get off of my lawn..."

 

[saladin]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

 

[misterwhizzy]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Members on the Gear Page will be laughing at the n00bs for trying out quantum amplification because the great tones of the 2020s were captured with digital modeling amps.

 

[Iron Horse]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Members on the Gear Page will be laughing at the n00bs for trying out quantum amplification because the great tones of the 2020s were captured with digital modeling amps.

Quantum amps = big package of amps?:scratchch

 

[ratherdashing]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Ten years ago, I was a happy modeling guy with a L6 AxSys 212 (or whatever TF it was called).

I came to the conclusion that it didn't really sound that great and sold it for a Koch Multitone. In the intervening years, I've owned tube amps by Fender, Soldano, Peters, Rivera, Fuchs, and Two Rock. I've owned a few modeling products (POD XTL, GuitarPort) too but they were never my primary tone platform. Life was good.

A few months ago I traded my Two Rock for an AxeFx and haven't turned on any of my tube amps since. My current circumstances aren't conducive to disappearing into the basement nor do they allow me to crank up an amp to the point where things get really tubey. While I wasn't happy to let the Two Rock go (I didn't have the cash to buy the AxeFx), the AxeFx gets somewhere between 95 and 105% of the Two Rock's tone. It does the same for the Soldano I used to own...and the Fender...and--well, you get the idea.

Given my experience, assuming that the electric guitar is an actively practiced instrument 50 yrs from now (more about that later), I have to believe that modeling is the future. Given the state of manufacturing, it really has to be.

First, there's the obvious: Forget about Moore's law, tubes aren't going to be made forever simply because it's not economically viable. As a component with a finite life (modern tubes much more so than NOS), the good stuff will get used up a number of years after production ceases...assuming you don't believe the good tubes are mostly gone already. That means that either our amps will go silent wanting for glowing bottles or some enterprising soul will develop a plug-in replacement. Do we really believe that such a replacement will sound just like real tubes? If it does, what are the chances that it does so using digital modeling?

Nearly as obvious is that modeling will continue to improve. Over the past several years, the AxeFx's modeling has gotten much better...without any changes to its hardware. With one or two major firmware revisions a year, Fractal manages to keep improving its product without adding a single transistor to its chips. Continue that sort of improvement for fifty years and you have something that will likely exceed our current ideas of what modeling can accomplish.

Even so, to me the real question isn't whether tube amps will still be popular in half a century but whether they should be. Are we so vain as to believe that the rock music of our youth will be considered hip for decades to come? What does that say about the creativity of contemporary musicians if it is? If another fifty years goes by without the next Hendrix or Van Halen shaking things up, electric guitar is liable to go the way of the banjo.

Besides, if the current trends in detuning continue, vintage guitar rigs won't be able to handle the subsonic content.

Excellent post.

Regardless of how guitarists feel about them, tubes are ancient technology. Their days are numbered, and have been for quite some time.

Meanwhile, the CPU in my Blackberry is 150 times faster than the one that sent men to the moon. Modelers will improve. Tubes will not.

 

[misterwhizzy]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Quantum amps = big package of amps?:scratchch

It's a Fender and a Marshall at the same time, but you don't know which until you play the first chord.

 

[Stratman]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Time traveling from the year 2525 - I must say that man is still alive and playing guitar as the universal messenger of intergalactic peace.

It started in a place call Seymour Duncan that was located Santa Barbara, which is now part of the Los Mojave-angelos-barbara mega city.

It seems that Seymour was working on a special pickup when an employee named Evan accidentally bumped into Seymour while laughing a a story being told by some hillbilly called Jolly.

That accident caused an spillage of organic tea to fuse into the wax pot used for silence the hum within that single, multiple phased magnet, pickup and the end result was the most complex, yet organic sounding tones ever played out of a telecaster; thereafter being sought by all guitar slingers in the USA and Europe (At a high shipping and import cost).

Soon after, Seymour and Frank developed a pedal using the same magic potting wax in a SD Pedal (Model SX-015), which was followed by the world's first organic tube made from potted glass and ferrous collector plates and anodes. This was used in the Seymour Duncan OrgAmp which had a wattage selection that was controlled by the force of the guitar player pick on the guitar's strings, instead of any volume/tone controls.

When Earth was visited in 2012 by the Ulgars, they came because of this advance in music processing and passed on knowledge and guitar playing skills that eliminated then need for drummers and bass players, but still required the need for female groupies...

World peace soon followed as did sales of guitar music on iEar, which replaced the iPod and iPhone.

 

[misterwhizzy]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Time traveling from the year 2525 - I must say that man is still alive and playing guitar as the universal messenger of intergalactic peace.

Were the Wyld Stallyuns still popular? Excellent...

 

[tonedeaf1]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

I wonder if tubes could be reinvented, the way light bulbs and tv's have been. Maybe manufactured with different materials that could last a lot longer and sound the same for a long time before the sound begins to change. Maybe have even more tubey-ness than current tubes. More warmth, more compression, more gain, use less voltage, and could run on batteries. Or maybe it's not possible, I don't know.

 

[Hellion]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Digitech will come out with the latest, greatest version of the signal processor and we'll be using rack systems again. Seems to change about every 20 years.

 

[aleclee]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

I wonder if tubes could be reinvented, the way light bulbs and tv's have been. Maybe manufactured with different materials that could last a lot longer and sound the same for a long time before the sound begins to change. Maybe have even more tubey-ness than current tubes. More warmth, more compression, more gain, use less voltage, and could run on batteries. Or maybe it's not possible, I don't know.

Tubes that last a lot longer? They're called NOS tubes. You might think I'm joking but a lot of the military tubes were good for 10K hours or more. Waaaaay better life than anything being made today. When you figure in the expected life, NOS tubes actually have cheaper TCO than current production tubes.

As for less voltage, you'd really be messing with the tonal recipe then. High voltage power supplies and output transformers impact tube tone more than you might think.

As for the rest, most of it can be done but it's called digital modeling.

 

[LtKojak]

Re: 50 years from now: what amp will guitarists be playing through?

Interesting thread....

Assuming we are still alive as a species, in control of the planet, and haven´t bombed ourselves back to the stone age...

RIGHT! I don't think the human race as we know it will still be walking on earth fifty years from now...